Medical Tuesday Blog

COVID-19 seems to spread to anyone, anywhere

Mar 23

Written by: Del Meyer
03/23/2020 8:17 PM 

Dr. Rosen:       Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, did not discover a treatment or a cure, just did what he does best: crunched the numbers. The statistics led him to the conclusion that, contrary to the grim forecasts being branded about, the spread of the virus will come to a halt. His forecasts turned out to be correct: the number of new cases reported each day started to fall as of February 7. A week later, the mortality rate started falling as well.        

Dr. Edwards:   It’s amazing the difference in the newspapers from reading the scientific predictions. According to the scientific predictions the rate of infection in the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day—that is a scary statistic according to Dr. Levitt. He said at that rate, the entire world should have been infected within 90 days.  

Dr. Milton:      Dr. Levitt, who is a biophysicist but obtained his Nobel in chemistry, says the rate of new infections in China should reach zero in 30 days. He also said the rate in Korea is past their median point and is dropping also.      

Dr. Rosen:       But Dr. Levitt was less optimistic about the spread in the United States. Whereas, China had an almost complete quarantine at the involved area, in the United States the virus is still spreading. He sees it spreading so fast that we will have 20,000 infected people which will deluge our hospitals.

Dr. Ruth:         It seems that we in this country have great difficulty putting on rubber gloves and a face mask. The papers are showing pictures of shoppers in farmer’s markets wearing a face mask but shopping for fruit with their bare hands.   

Dr. Michelle:   We all know from our surgery experience that bare hands are always insufficient in any infection control situation.

Dr. Ruth:         It seems that if we all just put on rubber gloves when we left our homes and put on the masks to cover our nose and mouth as we left our cars to shop or keep appointments, we would have had the same success as China.

Dr. Rosen:       I took a box of rubber gloves and a box of face masks from my office and placed them in my car and my wife’s car so we’re both fully protected and won’t spread the virus when we leave the car. This would interrupt any spread of an epidemic.      

Dr. Ruth:         I may have missed it, but I didn’t see any recommendations from our CDC to do those two simple things. So Covid-19 is still spreading in our country.

Dr. Rosen:       It’s such a simple epidemiologic concept to stop the spread of the virus in your own surroundings even as one does any necessary errands and otherwise stay home until the incubation period has lapsed and then proceed with caution. I guess Communist China has less difficulty in implementing public health measures than the United States.

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